Samsung Electronics Target Price Split at 390,000–600,000 Won: Securities Firms Divided Despite Earnings Surprise

Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) delivered preliminary second-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, yet securities firms' target prices diverged dramatically. Some raised their targets as high as 600,000 won (approximately $398), citing expanding artificial intelligence (AI) memory demand and prolonged supply shortages, while others lowered theirs to 390,000 won (approximately $259), concerned about slowing growth in the second half. The gap between the highest and lowest targets reached 210,000 won (approximately $139), a staggering 54% difference.

According to the Korea Exchange on July 8, Samsung Electronics shares closed at 277,500 won (approximately $184), down 18,500 won (approximately $12.28), or 6.25%, from the previous session. A day earlier, Samsung Electronics disclosed consolidated preliminary second-quarter revenue of 171 trillion won (approximately $113.5 billion) and operating profit of 89.4 trillion won (approximately $59.4 billion), surpassing Nvidia, the world's largest company by market capitalization. Operating profit exceeded the market consensus of 84.16 trillion won (approximately $55.9 billion) compiled by Yonhap Infomax by 6.2%. Excluding first-half performance bonus provisions estimated at roughly 17–20 trillion won (approximately $11.3–$13.3 billion), adjusted operating profit was estimated to reach 106–110 trillion won (approximately $70.4–$73.0 billion). Despite this, the stock plunged for a second consecutive session.

'AI Concerns Are Noise'… KB, IBK Raise Targets

KB Securities offered the most aggressive target price, raising its Samsung Electronics target from 530,000 won (approximately $352) to 600,000 won (approximately $398). Kim Dong-won, head of research, stated, "Supply growth will remain extremely limited through the first half of 2028, while AI memory demand is rapidly spreading across all sectors, likely triggering full-scale competition to secure memory." He added, "Recent AI concerns are nothing but noise." KB Securities raised its full-year operating profit estimate from 375.34 trillion won (approximately $249.2 billion) to 381.17 trillion won (approximately $253.1 billion), and next year's estimate from 547.81 trillion won (approximately $363.7 billion) to 574.11 trillion won (approximately $381.2 billion).

IBK Investment & Securities also lifted its target price by 31%, from 350,000 won (approximately $232) to 460,000 won (approximately $305). Analyst Kim Woon-ho noted, "Samsung Electronics' position in the AI ecosystem will only strengthen, and the stock remains undervalued. Top-line growth will become visible starting in the third quarter when High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) 4 volumes ramp up in earnest."

Eugene Investment & Securities maintained its target price of 560,000 won (approximately $372) and a 'Strong Buy' rating, assessing that aggressive pricing strategies and production capacity would sustain industry-leading average selling prices (ASP) through next year. It also forecast that the stock would weather the correction, supported by enhanced shareholder returns and earnings visibility through long-term supply agreements (LTA).

NH Investment & Securities kept its target at 530,000 won (approximately $352) but raised its full-year operating profit forecast by 2.9%, from 364.78 trillion won (approximately $242.2 billion) to 375.26 trillion won (approximately $249.1 billion). Hyundai Motor Securities also lifted its full-year operating profit estimate by 5.8% to 378.21 trillion won (approximately $251.1 billion). Lee Jong-wook, an analyst at Samsung Securities, commented, "Strong demand and limited supply response are typical of an early-cycle phase. The peak of the AI investment cycle has not yet arrived."

"Second-Half EPS Growth Slowing"… Kiwoom Cuts Target to 390,000 Won

In contrast, Kiwoom Securities lowered its target price from 430,000 won (approximately $285) to 390,000 won (approximately $259). While maintaining a 'Buy' rating, it assessed that a slowdown in second-half earnings per share (EPS) growth is inevitable. Park Yoo-ak, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, pointed out, "Rising component prices for memory and substrates are driving up PC and smartphone selling prices. Concerns over weakening demand are making customers more conservative in additional purchases, limiting the likelihood that memory price increases will exceed market expectations." He added that rising concerns over market share expansion by Chinese memory makers would simultaneously amplify stock price volatility in the second half. Kiwoom Securities estimated full-year operating profit at 366.3 trillion won (approximately $243.2 billion), 3% below market consensus.

Overseas Investment Banks Also Divided… Morgan Stanley: "Semiconductor Upside Momentum Slowing"

Views among overseas investment banks also diverged. Nomura Securities maintained its target price of 670,000 won (approximately $445), positively assessing earnings based on strong memory business performance. Chung Chang-won, co-head of Asia research at Nomura, analyzed, "Considering that first-half performance bonus provisions of roughly 20 trillion won (approximately $13.3 billion) were fully reflected in the second quarter, operating profit before bonuses is estimated at around 110 trillion won (approximately $73.0 billion). The memory division's results significantly exceeded expectations."

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley noted that the semiconductor industry's upside momentum is gradually decelerating. The assessment is that investors are rotating into relatively lagging sectors, including hyperscalers (large-scale data center operators), weakening the upward momentum of semiconductor stocks.

Post-Earnings Stock Decline… "Likely to Rebound After Short-Term Correction"

Regarding the stock price correction immediately following the earnings release, the prevailing view among securities firms is that it is a temporary phenomenon. Song Myung-sub, an analyst at iM Securities, said, "The decline resulted from a combination of profit-taking after the event passed and concerns over delays in Nvidia's next-generation AI server system launch." He added, "However, considering upward revisions to earnings estimates and valuation multiples, the stock is likely to rebound after a short-term correction."

Notably, all 18 securities firms that published reports after this earnings release maintained 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings on Samsung Electronics. Compared to the first-quarter earnings release in April, when more than nine securities firms simultaneously raised their targets, the current round—with two upgrades, one downgrade, and 15 unchanged—reflects a somewhat more cautious tone.

Changes in Major Securities Firms' Samsung Electronics Target Prices

Securities Firm	Previous Target	Revised Target	Rating
KB Securities	530,000 won	600,000 won	Buy
IBK Investment & Securities	350,000 won	460,000 won	Buy
Kiwoom Securities	430,000 won	390,000 won	Buy
Eugene Investment & Securities	560,000 won	560,000 won (unchanged)	Strong Buy
NH Investment & Securities	530,000 won	530,000 won (unchanged)	Buy
Hyundai Motor Securities	440,000 won	440,000 won (unchanged)	Buy
Nomura Securities	670,000 won	670,000 won (unchanged)	Buy

Note: Compilation of reports from major domestic and overseas securities firms as of July 8, 2026. Target prices based on common shares.

The divergence among securities firms ultimately stems from differing judgments on the sustainability of the memory supercycle. Optimists emphasize that AI investment expansion and supply constraints will persist through 2028, while cautious voices point to slowing end-demand from rising component prices and the catch-up of Chinese competitors as downside risks. For the time being, Samsung Electronics' stock price appears more likely to react sensitively to these macro variables than to quarterly earnings themselves.