Smart Glasses Enter 'Warring States' Era as Rokid Bets on Proprietary AIOS

The global smart glasses market has entered a "Warring States" period amid explosive growth. According to Counterpoint Research, the worldwide market for augmented reality (AR) glasses and display-less smart glasses surged 136% and 210% year-over-year, respectively, in the first quarter of 2026. Against this backdrop, China's Rokid has moved to differentiate itself by unveiling the world's first dedicated AI operating system for smart glasses.

At the "Rokid Open Day 2026" event on June 26, Rokid founder and CEO Zhu Mingming assessed that "today's smart glasses industry closely resembles the BlackBerry era before the iPhone was born," adding that "the true long-distance race has yet to begin, but the door to smart glasses is opening." He projected that a genuine "start" opportunity would emerge around next year.

During the event, Rokid introduced the concept of AIOS (Artificial Intelligence Operating System) for the first time and unveiled "YodaOS," the world's first smart glasses AIOS. The company also integrated WeChat's "Scan" feature, making it the first AI glasses company to embrace both of China's major mobile payment platforms, following its earlier partnership with Alipay. A next-generation AR spatial computing device was also revealed.

A Growing Market with Shifting Dynamics

Rokid's moves come amid rapid changes in the smart glasses competitive landscape. According to a CINNO Research report, the top five players by market share in Q1 2026 were Thunderbird Innovation, Rokid, XREAL, Qianwen, and Xiaomi, in that order. This represents a dramatic reshuffling from a year earlier, when the rankings were Thunderbird Innovation, XREAL, Xingji Meizu, VITURE, and Rokid.

Global tech giants are also making aggressive moves. Meta recently partnered with eyewear giant EssilorLuxottica to launch a new "Meta Glasses" series. The base model starts at $299, with a premium option available for an additional $100. While lacking a display, the glasses feature a hands-free camera, built-in speakers, microphones, and a voice assistant. A higher-end model with a built-in display jumps to $799. Meta currently commands over 80% of the global smart glasses market.

Google and Samsung Electronics are also preparing to launch competing products this fall in collaboration with eyewear brands including Gentle Monster and Warby Parker. In June, XREAL unveiled the "XREAL AURA," developed in partnership with Google and Qualcomm, entering the next-generation spatial computing glasses market. Snap's "Spectacles," priced at $2,195, have drawn criticism for their bulky design, with some reviewers noting they look more like a prop from an advertisement than a wearable product.

Yet the market remains in its infancy. Global smart glasses sales totaled just 7 million units in 2025—still a niche compared to smartwatches, which sell over 100 million units annually, and smartphones, which exceed 1 billion units per year.

Can the World Cup Be a Killer Use Case? "Not Yet"

Contrary to the industry's heated expectations, Rokid's leadership maintains a surprisingly sober outlook. The company secured an exclusive AI glasses partnership with China Media Group (CMG) to serve as an official broadcasting collaborator for the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Attention has focused on whether a mega-event like the World Cup could catalyze mainstream smart glasses adoption.

Rokid Vice President Wang Junjie explained that "the key advantage is being able to check real-time scores, match predictions, and more without needing to pull out a smartphone." However, he candidly acknowledged that the World Cup period overlaps with China's largest shopping festival, "618," making it difficult to isolate the precise cause of any sales increase. CEO Zhu Mingming, citing data from the 618 period, stated, "Some customers bought them for the World Cup, others bought them to help their children with homework." He was unequivocal: "The primary purpose of this collaboration is to elevate Rokid into a national brand. We do not believe this alone will cause the market to explode."

Zhu pointed to the industry's fundamental dilemma. "We have yet to find a scenario that simultaneously satisfies both 'high frequency' and 'strong demand.' Translation is a strong demand but low frequency; AI question-and-answer is high frequency but not an essential function." This aligns with analysis from Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Flora Tang, who emphasized that "on-device AI performance, thermal management and battery life in high-compute environments, display quality and cost control, and truly high-frequency use scenarios remain challenges the industry must solve."

"The Day Will Come When All Glasses Are Smart Glasses"

Despite the technical hurdles, the prevailing view is that smart glasses represent an inevitable trajectory. Ziad Asghar, an engineer at Qualcomm—which supplies chips for smart glasses to Meta, Snap, Samsung Electronics, and others—predicted that "someday, all glasses could become smart glasses." The face, he suggested, represents the last and best real estate on the body for consumer technology companies to claim.

However, the market is more likely to fragment by use case rather than coalesce around a single all-purpose device, as happened with smartphones. Asghar noted that "a future where people wear different glasses depending on the situation and need is more realistic." For instance, a user who listens to podcasts during commutes and takes calls from their children might opt for audio-focused smart glasses instead of earbuds, while an influencer might use camera-equipped glasses to document daily life. Industrial applications are evolving in even more specialized directions: wind turbine repair technicians already overlay digital twins onto physical equipment while collaborating with remote engineers—a use case that is generating revenue today.

Justin Payne, Google's head of AR and XR product management, assessed that "the era of a single product fitting everyone is not coming anytime soon," suggesting that within a realistic timeframe, it will be difficult for one device to dominate everything.

The "Subtraction" Race: AI Interaction Is Key

On product development direction, "lightweight design plus AI" is solidifying as the dominant trend. IDC China analyst Ye Qingqing observes the industry splitting into two broad paths: a "lightweight route" centered on slim AI glasses, and a "specialized route" focused on high-end headsets and premium glasses—though the latter is also evolving toward lighter form factors.

Rokid CEO Zhu Mingming stressed that "subtraction" is more critical than indiscriminately adding features. "As weight increases, battery life becomes a problem. But our red line is clear: as an AI terminal, the AI interaction hardware—cameras and microphones—can never be removed."

He predicted that while smart glasses will not immediately replace smartphones, in the future, phones will recede into bags, serving as hubs for communication, computing, and storage, while most user interaction shifts to glasses.

The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) forecasts that by 2026, manufacturing systems will mature and technology will advance rapidly, improving yields on key AI glasses components and driving down costs. After 2027, the market is expected to enter a maturation phase and cross the threshold into mass adoption. Analyst Flora Tang projected that "AI audio-camera glasses will proliferate first, lightweight AR will gradually penetrate, and then full-featured AR will develop over the long term," adding that "with Meta's aggressive expansion and market entry by Google and Apple, the AI glasses market will soon reach the 10-million-unit scale."

Meanwhile, Rokid's hardware ecosystem is also drawing attention. Lens Technology (300433.SZ), which handles final assembly for Rokid, stated at an investor briefing in March that "as a long-term partner to a major North American customer, we currently supply glasses charging case assembly and related structural components and functional modules." The company indicated that "leveraging our finished product manufacturing experience and vertical integration capabilities with Rokid, there is potential to expand our business into complete device assembly."